Hi Weather Watchers!

We want you to understand what El Niño is as we will talking about it a lot this Fall, Winter and Spring of 2016.

El Niño means The Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on the time of year (around December) during which these warm waters events tended to occur.

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate interaction linked to a periodic warming in sea surface temperatures across the central and east-central Equatorial Pacific.

Typical El Niño effects are likely to develop over North America during the upcoming winter season. Those include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest. The presence of El Niño can significantly influence weather patterns, ocean conditions, and marine fisheries across large portions of the globe for an extended period of time.
Currently El Niño is expanding along the Equator and will likely begin to expand further North in the next 30-45 days with RECORD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 

El Niño is only ONE PIECE of the puzzle for OUR long term forecasting technique. We will be watching it very closely as well as other teleconnections as the NEW pattern and cycles develop in the very near future.

We are seeing model analysis indicating Sea Surface Temperatures  in Oct-Nov-Dec and Nov-Dec-Jan as high as +2.5/2.8 degrees. If this verifies we are in NEW territory of El Nino’s – it doesn’t sound like much but those 2.4/2.8 degrees are incredibly significant. 

This will be an incredible time period to pay attention to global and US weather-it will likely be very interesting.

We hope this gives you some insight. 

The CPC has issued this 3 month forecast- showing above normal precip and below normal temps through October for the Central and Southern Plains.

   
Questions- please ask….