August weather/climate….The “pattern” and El Niño….
Good afternoon Weather Watchers.
Based on our long range forecasting technique. The heat builds in until the 3rd week of August.
HOWEVER, this represents the 7th cycle to the pattern and typically this time of year has the weakest upper level winds. What I am saying is the patterns reliability comes into question.
Based on our pattern we will see HOT temps and seasonal afternoon Thunderstorms especially over Western sections of the State.
The NEW pattern will be showing up soon according to some. Most who use this sort of long range forecasting technique watch the multiple teleconnections and Sea Surface Temperatures – when we combine these together it helps us predict climate and to some extent weather as we have come to realize that climate patterns repeat.
The teleconnections we pay close attention to include :
ENSO- El Niño Southern Oscillation NAO- North Atlantic Oscillation PNA- Pacific North American pattern EP- Eastern Pacific pattern SST- Sea Surface Temperatures The ENSO and SST’s are very important teleconnections and play a big part in our Algorithm. They both play an important role in North American climate.
That is just a taste of how everything is connected to bring about our climate/weather.
The ENSO index looks to be one of the strongest we have seen. It was a late bloomer( we didn’t think it was going to develop ) and now it will play a big part of our Winter into Spring climate.
Exactly how it will play out has yet been determined. IT IS NOT the only factor that will determine our 2015/2016 pattern, just part of it.
Take a look at the El Niño info from the CPC.
The Climate Prediction Center is predicting an cooler than Average August – September – October.
Moisture wise they are also predicting Above Average moisture during that time frame.
We are not ready to make our predictions until we have more data and are comfortable with the pattern time line.
We usually make an initial prediction about our long term predictions in September and then put together a follow-up in November.
This Fall could be an exciting ride for some in Kansas based on the CPC’s model.
Do you know the difference between Climate and Weather?
Hope this gives you some basic understanding what we continually look at when working with our climate forecasts.