This is the 500mb Model forecast for Jan 11th

A closed low develops over SE CO/ SW KS. This systems moves slowly East bringing with it ???

Below is the actual 500mb map that occurred 7PM 11/28 47 days prior to the above forecast storm being predicted by models. Compare belows map to the above forecast map- ITS DEAD ON!!

This was a closed low that produced a shower that gave the Wichita Airport .40″ of precip but only .08″ at Jabara just after midnight.

Hutchinson received only a Trace of moisture.

We were excited with the potential of moisture with this storm them nothing organized until evening and along and East of I-135.

As this system returns around Jan 11th will we see the similar set-up as we did in November or with we have more moisture to work with? That is what we must watch…. Remember the jet energy is stronger now than it was in November- will that make a difference?

This is what we are seeing models producing with this system. We have seen this set up before and then the system weakens- but again- this system was closed in November and models have is closed as it develops and moves through on the 11th- 47 days to the day!!!

Pretty interesting isn’t it???

Just because it didn’t produce much in November doesn’t mean it won’t produce this time… It does keep us cautious to get to excited 7 days out as it could go POOF…. as other systems have…or this could be a producer. CONFIDENCE IS LOW

The interesting feature is that the system is repeating right on schedule! CAN YOU SEE IT??

This systems placement will likely make it one of our SEVERE THUNDERSTORM producers in mid April…as temps will be above normal on the SE Side of the System and Cold on the NW side- a battle of the seasons…

Please ask questions-

Hope this makes sense for those of you who follow us and our Cycling pattern theory.

WW