Happy Thursday!! Congrats to the 2-0 Royals! If you enjoy sports, this World Series has been awesome!

Here is the Regional map showing chances of frost over far Eastern Kansas this evening.

Rain will move in from the South/Southwest early tomorrow morning making for a cool and wet day. Highs only in the 50s Statewide.

Here is what we are thinking precipitation wise. 

We are thinking that most of the good lift producing most of the precipitation  will stay just to our South like most of the systems we have seen this Fall.

This is why we think this will happen..

Here are the 500mb models it shows you how things progress or in this situation how they dissipate-which has been what happens most of the time with a Storm that forms coming into the West Coast, moves into the desert Southwest and thenbegins to falls apart as it moves towards the Central US.

Typical positively tilted trough:   

Trough begins to move out towards the Central US- see how the upper level winds begin to get sheared out- this trough is a J instead of the typical U shaped trough. It has really weakened 

Lastly the trough has fallen apart right on top of Kansas. This has happened many times this Fall.

Will this contine as we get into Winter?? Or will the increased power of the jet stream keep these troughs together further East giving the Central Plains better chances of moisture. 
Here are our long term thoughts into November. Nov 6-11th looks like an above normal stretch temperature wise across the Country.

The 12-20th looks like Average temps here in the Central US ( 50s-60s are average) with a cold outbreak in the Eastern US.

Precip wise- here is what are proprietary algorithm is showing:

Average precip with some above average areas in the SW and SE US.

Questions- please ask!

Have a good day!!