Good Sunday morning Weather Watchers! 

I cannot remember when the last time I read “Elevated Flooding Risk” on a Hazardous Weather Statement from the Dodge City NWS office. 

The system we have been waiting for is beginning to take shape and will continue to increase in strength as the week progresses. 

A cool front will move into the area and stall which will set the stage for thunderstorms to form along it the first part of the week before it begins to move North midweek as a Warm front. 

This image shows the mid level Vorticity that serves as a trigger for storms as these pieces of energy moves through. The main piece of energy will hang back and spin and just spit out pieces of energy. 

  
Thunderstorms should begin in Western sections of the State later today and continue on and off throughout the week as the main system moves SLOWLY East. 

   

The area in purple should receive some of the best rainfall we have seen in months. 

See the black arrow in the SE US? That is pointing out a strong area of High Pressure that is building in. The flow around High pressure is CLOCKWISE – this High will help draw moisture North from the Gulf of Mexico right into the Central Plains and serve as a roadblock for the system affecting the Central Plains. 

Chances for some Severe Weather increase as moisture increases. Tues Night through Wed night is one time frame we are keeping an eye on, as well as next Fri and Sat- Mothers Day weekend. 

  
Here is a Radar simulation of what we are thinking for this evening – this is what the radar is expected to look like around 10pm…
Lastly – the models continue to show very substantial rainfall over the next 7 days…  


This is a complex system – we will keep an eye on it. 

Questions, let us know….

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