Good Saturday morning Weather Watchers….

CURRENT models indicate the potential for ENHANCED Severe Weather from Western through Central KS Sunday afternoon in evening. 

Strong low and mid level wind shear will be present as depicted in this graphic.

The red arrow indicates 50-60kt winds around 3500′ while the blue arrow indicate 50+ kt winds around 9000′. The surface winds are indicated in purple out of the Southeast.

This will provide the necessary wind shear ( turning of the winds with height) to produce Supercell Thunderstorms. 

As we have mentioned from the get go- we need fuel for these storms in the form of moisture- CURRENT models are indicating dewpoints in the low 60s with surface heating to around 80. That should be enough for the potential of Severe Storms. 

There are a couple of factors that could fire storms earlier than anticipated in Western sections of the State, so those with outdoor activities are STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO check back as forecast details continue to come together.

Here is the model we use when forecasting Tornadic potential- notice how it falls in line with the ENHANCED RISK area. 

Again, please stay tuned as we watch this system continue to develop.

Questions, please ask…

Have a great Saturday!!