Hi Weather Watchers!

Thanks for your comments about accuracy and models.

One thing we have always told you when looking at models is to look for TRENDS. Look for repeating features and does it line up with other features or is it potential fantasy?  We call inaccuracies in models fantasy storms.

We have been watching this system ( as part of a Southwest flow) for over a week now- we discussed the SW features in a blog last week.

Here is what Monday looks like: A Strong Closed low forming over Las Vegas and the desert Southwest that moves East right over Kansas by Tuesday giving us chances of Thunderstorms. This image is the 500mb chart (18,000 ft) – the colors represent the wind speed associated with the jet stream with the color key showing you the wind strength- red being around 100 knots (125 mph). Notice how the strength in the jet stream has increased? The jet will continue to increase in strength and peak in Winter. 

This plays a role with Wind Shear- both directional and speed shear.

 
The set-up looks like this as after a SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN Friday and Saturday.
The cool area of High pressure moves off to the East and Lee side Low forms in Eastern CO.

This allows winds to increase from the South and bring up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

   
   
If we can get the appropriate amount of moisture back North we set the stage for the potential of Thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Would be surprised if we saw a few Severe storms if everyone comes together.

  
We will keep an eye on this set up- as well as the COOL air for Friday and Saturday..

Highs in the 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s..

Frost in parts of KS Saturday night?? We will see…