Enhanced Risk of Severe Storms for Fathers Day late afternoon into the evening.
Good morning Weather Watchers! We actually have our second ENHANCED risk of Severe Storms from the Storm Prediction Center. Let’s take a look:
A cold front/dry line will be approaching from the WNE as a warm front lifts North… The Warm sector is where the Enhanced Risk will be located. It will have CAPE values of 2500-4500 j/kg which is VERY unstable air in place. Storms will form along the Cold front around 3-4 pm while the potential for discrete cells to form in Central/South Central KS out ahead of the main line of storms. These storm ( if they do develop ) have to potential to be large hail producers with the potential of a few tornadoes.
The most significant and more widespread threat appears to be that of wind gusts of 70+mph…. This will occur along a Severe Mesoscale Convective System ( MCS )that is forecast to develop along the Cold front. One the MCS develops the Tornado threat decreases as well as the potential for VERY large hail.
Here is the Wind threat :
What complicates tomorrows set up is a piece of energy that is over the Pacific Northwest today and should arrive into Central KS as stIrma begin to develop tomorrow – this piece of energy called a “shortwave” will help the Storms spin and provide an environment for moderate wind shear- ( turning of winds with height )
We could see a portion of the area being placed under a Moderate Risk of Severe Storms if this piece of energy comes in a little stronger- we will have to see how things develop over the next 12 hours.
Here is the set-up for tomorrow:
We will keep you posted…