The set- up for Monday’s storm is complicated…let’s take a look at it:

Here is the FLASH FLOOD WATCH that has been issued until Tuesday evening!

The ground across the Eastern 2/3rds of KS is saturated. Any moisture that fall will not soak in – it has no where to go so it will run-off causing rural and urban flooding which in turn will cause BIG increases in area creeks and rivers.

The set up for FLASH

FLOOD GUIDANCE Monday into Tuesday is a MODERATE threat which is something we rarely see:

Here are potential rain totals across the Central Plains :

So flooding will likely be the biggest threat for Kansas.

What we will have to watch CLOSELY is how far North the Warm front makes it- that will determine who is anyone in KS will get any Significant Severe Weather.

The areas North of the Warm front ( in Kansas ) will see FLOODING RAINS and Hail – these storms will be elevated in nature- not surface based so the Tornado threat SHOULD be VERY LOW.

Temps North of the Warm front will be in the 60s – areas South of the Warm front will be in the Warm sector will be in the 70s with EXTREMELY juicy air ( high dew-points in the mid 60s to around 70 )

This shows the Warm front at 1PM Monday from SW KS Southeast through Oklahoma. A dry-line is established in the Panhandles .

A unusually STRONG Jet stream will be aiding in Storm development and the Severity of storms that develop in that Warm sector… Remember the term Wind Shear?

The Wind Shear will be INSANE tomorrow over Oklahoma.

This is why there is a MODERATE threat of STRONG Tornadoes.

It would not surprise us to see the SPC upgrade most of OKLAHOMA into a HIGH RISK category for Severe Weather.

If you are chasing and you are an amateur- THIS IS NOT YOUR STORM TO CHASE…. The highways will be clogged and FLOODING is possible:

The storms in OK could be tough to escape if you are in the wrong position.

THE CURRENT THREAT FOR MONDAY:

The FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND!!

We are here to keep you posted!

We will have one team monitoring Storms in OK and another in South Central KS.

We will likely provide some LIVE updates.

Questions, PLEASE ASK!!