FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES…Pesky frontal boundary…Severe Storms along and South of front in Southwest & South Central today…Thunderstorms North of front as well
Good morning Weather Watchers!
The Enhanced Risk was placed in the correct areas, the Storm coverage didn’t develop as forecast. We had 4 to 5 Supercells develop along the stalled frontal boundary West of I-135 back West to Hodgeman and Pawnee Counties.
This storm developed South of Great Bend around 7:30pm
Another supercell storm developed along the front just SW of the Storm above that was just East of Larned and then it began to back build… Rainfall of 4″-6″+ have been reported across Pawnee County-
This is why I love Kansas… it’s beautiful scenes like this over rural sparsely populated areas.
A stationary front is still over portions of Southern Kansas:
The Red and Blue line in the image above is the Stationary front. It will move some throughout the day. We will watch where it is hourly as it will impact our forecast.
South of that boundary you will find warmer temps and higher Dewpoints. To the North of the front it’s cooler with Dewpoints mostly in the mid 50s. Moisture is streaming over that boundary which is why Thunderstorms with Heavy rain are forecast North of the front.
As a strong piece of upper energy moves out of New Mexico- a Significant Severe Weather Outbreak should begin to develop over the Panhandles and into portions of Southern Kansas.
We are expecting development around 3 on today especially along the front and points South in the Warm sector.
Here are what short term HiRes models are forecasting:
Here are the Storm Prediction Centers Outlook for today – we added the frontal boundary on this
HAIL THREAT is very HIGH
Strong Wind threat:
TORNADO threat which includes the potential for STRONG Tornadoes over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles from Lubbock TX to Woodward OK.
We will continue to Monitor how and when storms begin to develop.
The key is the front…. If you have East or Northeast winds you will likely not see Severe Storms just Heavy rains.
If your winds are out of the South or Southeast you are in the Warm Sector and have the potential for Severe Storms.
Check back throughout the day, we will keep you posted…
Have a SAFE day!