Good morning Weather Watchers!

Interesting day yesterday. Many of you in Northern Central KS are wondering why you didn’t get 6″+.

I appears that the best Lift was just a few miles South over South Central KS where they saw widespread 6″-10″ totals across Kingman, Reno, Rice and McPherson counties. Snowfall rates of 1″-2″ per hour allowed for such high totals as most of the snow fell between 1PM and 6PM when dry air began working in from the Southwest.

GREAT JOB SHARING YOUR WEATHER yesterday! It kept many people informed which is our goal.

OK- now on to our next system for Saturday!

We are issuing a French Toast Watch…Bread, Milk, Eggs shopping alert… Sorry about the humor- we just had to go there….

The European Model has been our model of choice this entire winter and we think it is likely getting this system correct.

The GFS, American Model, started with this system around 100 miles further North. It is aligning closer and closer to the Euro.

Let’s take a look at the GFS…

We will show you the European data as soon as it comes out, later this afternoon.

Here is the GFS data

The system is just coming ashore this morning:

The GFS is not as cold as the European on the backside. It doesn’t pull down the lots of cold air, especially with the anticipated strength of this system. That is something we must watch…

This is the GFS surface temperatures forecast as of today- we also correlated the surface forecast with the temps so you could see what is occurring- the third image is the UPPER LEVEL forecast during the same time frame.

By noon Sat the system starts to wrap up into a comma head- that’s called cyclogenesis

This System in negatively tilted which means it is a very strong system with lots of lift and vorticity- if this was Spring we would be talking about a Severe Weather Outbreak ( Don’t forget to write this storm down 56 days from Saturday 2/23 – it will return to the area in April )

This system on Saturday will be intensifying hourly and have lots of strong NW winds on its backside- 40+mph, which is why we are concerned about blizzard conditions.

This system will likely produce Thunderstorms on the Warm side (SouthEast and East sides) and Blizzard conditions on the backside (West and Northwest). It will be another interesting Weather day, that’s for sure!

What we will be watching over the next 24 hours is the projected Track, intensity of the system and timing…

As always when we are tracking a system like this we must tell you to Stay tuned and that things will continue to change and evolve.

These are what the GFS model is thinking today- more later!

Weather Watchers