Good Wednesday Morning Weather Watchers!

The Storm we have been talking about is 48 hours away and we still are not sure what the effects it will have on the Kansas.

If you are heading South from Kansas into the Western half of Oklahoma including the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles expect travel troubles Friday into Saturday as a Winter Storm Watch has been issued:

This Storm will produce BOTH Ice and Snow. Exact details of what locations will see Ice or Snow hasn’t been defined yet- Those details won’t likely be confirmed for another 24 hours. The Storm will likely affect the region from Friday late afternoon in Saturday evening.

The Models are once again not handling this system well at all.

The American GFS Model which had significant snowfall into Southern Kansas most of the week came out with this data overnight:

It is not handling temperatures well and is an obvious outlier.

The Canadian model GEM has become much more aggressive with a Northward solution:

The EUROPEAN Model which has kept the system South all week has started trending North in the last couple runs:

What we do when forecasting is look for trends and that has been difficult with the models being so inconsistent with this storm.

The GFS has been giving us a more Northern solution and the Euro has been forecasting a Southern solution.

The Short term NAM Model gives portions of Western and Southern Kansas accumulating snowfall.

As usual we must say “STAY TUNED”…. but we will add a caveat that the most significant impacts of this Storm will be felt from the Panhandles across Oklahoma.

This is where the “seasonal difference” comes in with our long range forecasting. When this storm moved through in October it gave us almost an inch of moisture across portions of Kansas and it moved much slower. This system looks to be more progressive with a stronger jet stream than we had 2 months ago.

We will continue to analyze the data so please stay tuned as this forecast is obviously not set in stone.

Expect a nice day today before a STRONG front moves through Thursday with strong NNW winds…

Thanks for checking in….

Weather Watchers