The jet stream has retreated North we have a ” cut-off ” Low  in the Texas panhandle that will meander Northeast towards South Central KS today into tomorrow.  A “cut-off ” Low is an area of Low pressure that is cut-off from the main flow so it just moves where it wants. Have you ever heard “A cut-off Low is a Weatherman’s woe”. 

These surface Lows can move East or West trying to find a flow to pick them up- this particular one looks like it will unravel in Eastern KS. 

As our cut- off low sits and spins a trough develops to our West with a Lee side Low developing in Eastern CO- ( which is why it is called Lee side) 

This Surface Low will move slowly East into Kansas and continue to move slowly through the weekend. A low level jet kicks in Wed night enhancing rainfall Wed night. The surface low and weak front will be our trigger for Showers and isolated Thunderstorms through the rest of the period. The rainfall looks to subside as our upper level pattern begins to change to a Northwest flow. 

We all know what Northwest flow means- no Severe Weather as long as we have Northwest flow over our area in the upper atmosphere. Long term, I think that sticks around through the last week of the month. 

Again we should see rainfall on and off from Wednesday night through Sunday. I think we will see widespread 1-3″ rainfall amounts if the current forecast plays out. 

  

Isolated Severe Storms begin in Western KS Wednesday evening and then move slowly across the State – remember the Low Level Jet will help enhance the rainfall Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. 

Rain chances continue through Sunday but NO chances of Severe Weather exist past Wed evening. 

  

If you have questions….let us know!

Clean out those rain gauges as we will definitely want to know your rain totals. 

Have a great day Weather Watchers!

Keep those umbrellas handy.