GOOD EVENING- LETS LOOK AT HOW THIS IS GONNA DEVELOP.
Hello Weather Watchers – let’s take a look at a few things-
The storms won’t really start to get its act together until tomorrow.
Here are currents as of 9:30 Tues night
The Broad area of Low Pressure is around 997mb across Eastern CO & Western KS- it will start to go through cyclogenesis Wednesday.
The areas that will see the most moisture is NW KS – 4″-6″ from Oberlin to Colby to Goodland.
Here is how BIG this system is:
This is where the liquid moisture will fall:
TORNADO THREAT IS WHAT WE CALL EXTREMELY CONDITIONAL!
That means the conditions are present where we COULD see a couple Supercell storms develop or maybe NONE – our thinking is maybe one storm develops and drops hail and boogies NNE at 40kts …the Warm sector over KS stays Capped…
The time frame IF any storms are going to develop is from about 5pm to 9pm- Max heating and when impressive low level wind shear kicks in.
Above is where something could develop-
We will update this in the AM…when the SPC updates their thoughts.
WIND WILL BE A BIG STORY- FIRE DANGER IN SW KS IS ANOTHER THREAT.
Here is timing of wind and strength:
Hope this helps you understand this system better- most of the impact will be over NW KS.
The SIGNIFICANT impact will be across Western and Northern NE, South Dakota and Southern MN- Travel will likely become impossible Wed evening through Fri.
If you have questions- please ask.
Hope those who struggle with pain aren’t too miserable but feel they will be the next couple of days across the Sunflower State.