As you know we look at computer models that help us make our forecasts. They tell us things about different levels of the atmosphere, from here at the surface to higher than jets fly. 

We look at 5 models consistently.  The main 3 are NAM, GFS, SREF.

We are going to compare Wednesdays GFS to the NAM. This will give you an idea why it takes time time to give you exact details. We could see the storm in the models for over a week now- it’s the – where are the features going to set up is what takes a bit to figure out.

Here is the GFS forecast:

   

 

The GFS brings the features to the I-135 corridor – if you see the purple circle on the first image – that is called the “Triple Point ” it is where the Dryline, Low and Warm Front come together – the area where the most significant storms can develop.  Most storm chasers try and identify the Triple point when chasing. 

The next image shows to NAM Model. 

   

 

The NAM model is showing the set up 50 – 70 miles West of what the GFS is. Can you see that? 

Which model will be correct? 

The Storm Prediction Center which provides the outlooks for Severe Weather has Wednesdays set up to the West of the I-135 corridor, around the US281 corridor – Russell to Medicine Lodge. 

  

The energy that will be affecting us is just now making landfall in Northern CA. We will have a much better idea on Wednesdays set up later this evening. 

As always, if you have questions- please ask.