Good morning Weather Watchers!!

I honor of Mothers Day…..it’s time to say thank you by having a WEATHER RADIO CONTEST!!

List your current conditions and what community/City/County you are from!

We have been watching these models for a while and continue to get HEAVY RAIN signals!!

We are in more of a SUMMER pattern than we are a Spring like pattern.

We should be having severe chances everyday over the next week to 10 days – but the Upper Lever Winds- are not conducive to a multi-day Severe event but are conducive to a multi-day heavy rain event. Remember what we call those winds that support Severe storms?? ( a bonus question )

We are expecting Thunderstorms to develop and move slowly with VERY HEAVY rainfall. PWATs ( precipitable water values- Precipitable Water – measure of the depth of liquid water at the surface that would result after precipitating all of the water vapor in a vertical column over a given location, usually extending from the surface to 300 mb) are forecast to approach 1.5-2″ which is very HIGH.

This prolonged rain event will likely help the Drought – we could see 2″-10″ inches over the next week to 10 days as we have chances every late afternoon into the overnight.

Don’t take this map as gospel location wise- it just gives us a general idea that Heavy Rain is looking POSSIBLE….Confidence is increasing in a potential flooding event as we have seen this solution for several days now on models.

The reason for all of this moisture is the Gulf of Mexico is open for business and we have a developing Low in SW Kansas drawing and High Pressure to our Southeast in the Gulf that will help draw moisture towards us via clockwise flow.

We will have the ABOVE NORMAL ( close to record breaking heat). Combine those two ingredients and we have very effective or STRONG CAPE 2000-5000j/kg-Convective Available Potential Energy!! That will producer some BOOMERS!!

The best day with decent upper air support – which translates into Severe potential is Monday afternoon into evening…

Here is the Severe Potential the next 3 days: ( not rain Potential-Severe potential)

Monday:

Tuesday:

Current radar 9:00AM

LOOK FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAME AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING- with the better severe threat over S Central areas

GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY MOTHERS DAY!!