Heavy Rainfall Sunday into Monday morning…
A very strong system developing over the NW Texas Panhandle into SW KS and an open Gulf of Mexico mean lots of moisture streaming NNW.
The system begins to develop Sunday morning and rain develops across Southeast & South Central KS
As the day progresses Sunday the storm system begins to intensify.
COLD air in place across Colorado and upslope conditions will create a few hours of Snow across the front range of CO.
As the system strengthens is slows down and follows the KS/OK border- this is a favorable track for heavy Precip for Central/South Central/Southeast KS.
Rain totals looks very impressive for this time of year. This would have likely been our largest snowstorm of the Winter if we had Cold air in place… It’s all bottled up across Canada – take a look at this Arctic Oscillation. It’s at it HIGHEST level!!
Remember, when the AO is neutral to negative during the Winter months a cold air or even Polar Vortex is likely.
We saw a negative AO in November before Thanksgiving and thought this years pattern would bring us shots of very cold air… It didn’t and it hasn’t which is why our snows have clipper type systems 1-4” and Warm air returns within a day or so after the system moves out. As seen above the AO is forecast to head to a closer to neutral which means we should expect some colder days between now and the 1st few days of March. We will be watching the a storm during that time ….
Back to current Weather- Cold air will briefly filter in after this Sundays system. Snow Showers are possible Tuesday afternoon- no accumulation is expected at this time as moisture will be limited.
Let’s take a look at rain totals- Here are the Canadian & European models.
There will be enough instability that a few Thunderstorms are possible. Those that experience will likely experience the highest rain totals.
If we experience 1”-2” rainfalls as forecast expect field flooding and even significant rises on area rivers. This is something to watch closely.
A Flood Watch could be issued later today…
Please share your rain totals and report any flooding.
Have a good day…get your umbrellas ready.