Good late Friday evening Weather Watchers!

Taking a look at the last couple model runs of the GFS is very interesting….It is something that has our attention as the New pattern sets up. 

Let take a look…..

 This this where the upper features will be located by Wednesday afternoon- We will be in a Northwest flow most of the week from Tues-Friday. Above average temps and dry conditions are looking likely for most of next week. That cut off Low is still just spinning around in the SW US as it is “Cut off” from the main flow.

There is an old saying “A cut-off Low is a weatherman’s woe”. Cut-off Lows are unpredictable which is why that statement is so accurate.

In our last pattern- we never had cut-off Lows which is one clue the pattern is changing. 

The massive flooding in the Carolinas was caused by a Cut-off Low.

 
Let’s look at something else that has shown up in the models. This is a very important feature. The trough below forms very close to the 4 corners. 

Last years pattern- storms would just begin to form in SE CO/ SW KS travel ENE to a St Joe-Chicago line where they would rapidly intensify.

The troughs in this models is developing West of KS which would put us in a favorable storm track.

We have been seeing this solution appear in the last 6-10 days on and off.

We must watch this as….
 

Take a look at this model- it begins to negatively tilt- which tells us the storm is strengthening and slowing down. We never saw a solution like this last year- will we see some Southwest flow with Strong storms this year?? On the heals of this first storm is another digging into the four corners- take a look at the next model…

 
  These are most likely fantasy storms as they are showing up towards the end of the month – as we have always said – never advertise anything this far out.
We are not concerned at all with the  track of any storms this far out– However, we are VERY interested in where the troughs/ridges decide to set-up and if we begin to see a trend-especially storm systems that form and intensify to our West/Southwest. 

Additionally, look how far South the jet stream is towards the end of October.

This does follow our long term forecast that the end of October first part of November we will likely see a big change.

 
I hope this makes sense to those who have followed our long term forecasts- the pattern is developing right in front of us.

Is it real? Not sure… We will have to wait and see how things continue to look.

We will definitely keep you posted…

Thanks for all of your rainfall totals!!

What do you think our Winter will be like??

Let us know…you could WIN a Hat- there is no wrong answer. 

  
Would like to hear your thoughts!