We talk about the Models a lot. They help provide guidance to those who provide forecasts for us on a daily basis.  The shorter the time frame the more accurate, say 72-84 hours,  that is around a 65% accuracy rate…

The further out we review the data, the accuracy drops off significantly.  Some models provide data out to 384 hours or 16 days. Anything over 5 days, your forecast accuracy drops to around 30%. Pretty pathetic isn’t it with all the amazing technology we have at our fingertips these days.

That’s why we get so excited this time of year watching our LONGTERM forecast take shape.

Models are all over the place before the pattern is set by Mid November.

Some in our circles already have an idea of the New pattern as well as the cycle time,  which looks MUCH lower than it was compared to last years pattern. 

As we all have been saying, this Fall has been anything but. We have seen a few quick hitting Fall Cold fronts with most of our temperatures above average with below average monthly moisture- some areas have really felt it – and additional areas are starting to feel it. 

Ok- the reason we discussed accuracy and how normal forecasting techniques don’t provide accurate longterm forecasts is this…

The Climate Prediction Center is showing ABOVE average precipitation beginning around 2 weeks from now across the Central US -Oct 24 – Nov 6

  
Here is their thoughts- they are basing the forecast for the last 10 days of October into the first part of November on the fact that the jet stream is increasing in intensity and will begin to amplify instead of the Zonal pattern ( West to East ) that we have seen over the last few weeks.

Models show this jet stream amplification- we spoke about that last week…when we mentioned our long range technique was showing some changed late in the month into November.
 
 They actually begin to increase precip around the 18 of Oct and continue it through the 26th.

 
AGAIN- we will follow this forecast and we will track its accuracy- you do the same. The areas of green and the associated colors represent “PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY”

Let’s see what happens and how it verifies.

*EXPECT Above normal temps Tues-Thurs this week then below average temps Fri-Sat before above average temps return next Sun-Mon along with Strong Southerly winds ahead of a Strong cold front next week…

No moisture in site in the next 7 days.