Hi Weather Watchers- will we see a couple Thunderstorms develop on the dry-line today? 

The dry-line is a boundary that separates warm dry air from moist air. Look at the GREEN numbers – those are dewpoints which tells us how much moisture is at the surface. The higher the number the more humid it is – humidity or moisture is one of the ingredients necessary for Thunderstorms.

The Brown line is the dry-line.   

You typically want dewpoints in the 60s for Severe Storm HOWEVER this time of year the wind energy or wind shear can make up for the lower dewpoints. 

 This is the forecast for 6 pm this evening: 
The CAPE is the emery necessary for Storms- notice there is 1500 j/kg of CAPE available in South Central KS-that along with the Wind Shear should provide enough instability for an ISOLATED storm or 2 to develop. Notice the blue lines in the image below? That represents the CAP or LID on the atmosphere where storms are not likely to develop. Notice in South Central KS there is a small area that has no CAP- I circled it in Red- IF any storms develop that is where the most likely areas.

 
Here is the HRRR Model showing some potential development around 7pm this evening..

AGAIN – this is CONDITIONAL- they might or might not form based on the CAP.  The areas I’d keep my eyes on if you were going to go out on a first chase would be along the 281 corridor. You could see a Supercell develop.

 
 Later in the week an area of moisture associated with a Cut off Low ( cut off from the main flow) will move North giving us a chance for NON severe showers and storms..
 
Questions, please ask…