Good afternoon Weather Watchers!

Let’s take a look at the next Winter storm that will affect the Central Plains Fri/Sat.

If you remember our recent post we discussed that we use a theory that a weather patterns forms in the Fall and then repeats or cycles until the next Fall. This years pattern is repeating at a 52-56 day

Let’s take a look at what happened at the surface back in October:

Notice that on October 13-14-15 there was rainfall ( Column 7 )…also notice the temperature departures in Column 5…these numbers tell us how far from normal temperatures were on that specific day-most of that week is very below normal. If you see on the 15th you will see that is the departure is the greatest at -20. That tells us there was a reinforcing cold from that moved through.

Based on what we are seeing this week. We are below normal with a reinforcing cold front coming in on Thursday. Our storm system is to our SW and drawing moisture NNW.

Here are the 500 mb maps we are looking at:

This was the 500 mb map for 7pm Oct 14th:

This is the forecasted 500 mb map for this coming Thursday:

The Closed Low in October was very far North.

With the MUCH STRONGER JET – the Low is SW based in December- The split flow exists in both images.

When the system moved through in October in gave us .79″ of moisture in 36 hours.

The CURRENT forecast is to provide .50-1″ of moisture.

This go around the Precip looks like snow.

Based off of our Long Range forecasting theory, this storm will return Dec 7 & 8….

Current models indicate SNOW

Again, we are confident a storm will be in the area but the EXACT track is something we must still watch!!

If you notice another storm system affected the Central Plains 8-10 days later. So, we are expecting another system around the 16-18th. LOOK AT TEMPS…. They were normal on day one of the system with a cool air intrusion during or after the storm system moved through.

That immediately questions whether that system will be a Cold and Wet system with Snow or will it be rain? These are all things we must watch- we are fairly confident a Storm system will be in the area 2 weeks from now…

How is that for LONG RANGE forecasting???

We are going out on a limb but just want you to understand how we have been so accurate….This is how.

Please stay tuned as Confidence in a late week Winter System is fairly HIGH – we must work out the finer details as it gets closer.

Questions… PLEASE ASK!

Are you tracking these systems with us?

Have a great evening & GO CHIEFS!!

They played another great game today! Mahomes is just amazing!

Thanks for checking in…

Weather Watchers

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What about a White Christmas???

The pattern gets real active and chilly around Christmas through the middle of January…