Late week Winter Storm…does it match the pattern? Is it on schedule? Let’s take a look….
Good afternoon Weather Watchers!
Let’s take a look at the next Winter storm that will affect the Central Plains Fri/Sat.
If you remember our recent post we discussed that we use a theory that a weather patterns forms in the Fall and then repeats or cycles until the next Fall. This years pattern is repeating at a 52-56 day
Let’s take a look at what happened at the surface back in October:
Notice that on October 13-14-15 there was rainfall ( Column 7 )…also notice the temperature departures in Column 5…these numbers tell us how far from normal temperatures were on that specific day-most of that week is very below normal. If you see on the 15th you will see that is the departure is the greatest at -20. That tells us there was a reinforcing cold from that moved through.
Based on what we are seeing this week. We are below normal with a reinforcing cold front coming in on Thursday. Our storm system is to our SW and drawing moisture NNW.
Here are the 500 mb maps we are looking at:
This was the 500 mb map for 7pm Oct 14th:
This is the forecasted 500 mb map for this coming Thursday:
The Closed Low in October was very far North.
With the MUCH STRONGER JET – the Low is SW based in December- The split flow exists in both images.
When the system moved through in October in gave us .79″ of moisture in 36 hours.
The CURRENT forecast is to provide .50-1″ of moisture.
This go around the Precip looks like snow.
Based off of our Long Range forecasting theory, this storm will return Dec 7 & 8….
Current models indicate SNOW
Again, we are confident a storm will be in the area but the EXACT track is something we must still watch!!
If you notice another storm system affected the Central Plains 8-10 days later. So, we are expecting another system around the 16-18th. LOOK AT TEMPS…. They were normal on day one of the system with a cool air intrusion during or after the storm system moved through.
That immediately questions whether that system will be a Cold and Wet system with Snow or will it be rain? These are all things we must watch- we are fairly confident a Storm system will be in the area 2 weeks from now…
How is that for LONG RANGE forecasting???
We are going out on a limb but just want you to understand how we have been so accurate….This is how.
Please stay tuned as Confidence in a late week Winter System is fairly HIGH – we must work out the finer details as it gets closer.
Questions… PLEASE ASK!
Are you tracking these systems with us?
Have a great evening & GO CHIEFS!!
They played another great game today! Mahomes is just amazing!
Thanks for checking in…
What about a White Christmas???
The pattern gets real active and chilly around Christmas through the middle of January…