COOLER Sunday and Monday as cool air filters in from the Cold front that pushed through today. 

The GFS looks as though it turns out to be the outlier Model with our system moving through Tuesday. Light rain looks possible Tuesfay as a cold front moves through with even cooler temps Wednesday-Friday.

 NAM Model: 
 GFS Model:
 The main area of Low pressure looks to develop in SW OK/West Cen TX. 
This storm will intensify and bring another significant storm system to the Eastern US. It looks to be heavy rainfall this time but that can change- we will need to Watch that system develop.

There will likely be some Severe Weather in the Southern States Wednesday as the system digs South to the Coast. This energy will allow warm Gulf moisture to stream North with cold air headed South setting the stage for those Severe storms.
 As the system heads North, the Eastern US will see another strong system. Will it have enough Cold air for Snow or will it be heavy rainfall….Big question right now…

The NOAA folks have put out their March forecast today, it agrees with our thoughts of a Wetter than average March.

Additionally they have also released their experimental 3-4 week forecast- this shows Above average precipitation between March 5 and March 18. The jet looks to take more of a Southern branch or we could see another split flow set up off the West Coast energizing that Southern Branch like we saw in Cycle 2- from latter November into December.

You can take this 500mb model image with a grain of salt as it is close to 12 days out–models show the Western ridge breaking down with a more progressive split flow becoming established.

We will definitely keep a close eye on how this continues to progress.

Questions, please ask…