Ok Weather Watchers-

First of all, there is a FB page managed by a former TV Weatherman (to our South) that actually posted snow totals for the fantasy snow systems we showed you. In our opinion that is very irresponsible ….

We answered no less than 10 questions asking if this was true…

Let’s get back to the basics before we take a look at these CRAZY models and why things appear to not make much sense…. ( This is where we stopped writing the blog around 11pm last night )

Remember what index we look at during Winter that give us an indication to expect Arctic Air? It’s called the AO or Arctic Oscillation…. let’s look at where it was today…

The AO appears to go positive around the 16th ( This Saturday ) which indicates warmer temperatures…our forecast is for 60s West and South with 50s everywhere else.

Around the 20th models have it going Negative which means Arctic air SHOULD head South.

The Pattern is definitely changing as we have said it would.

What has been causing us significant consternation is how the models have been handling a piece of energy moving South and East out of the Gulf of Alaska next weekend- we can’t animate it on here – sorry.

We wanted to make sure the energy was going to hold together and not get sheered apart. The latest models do hold it together- we are seeing a trend–( FINGERS CROSSED IT CONTINUES )

We are getting a little more confident of the POTENTIAL for Winter Weather systems in or CLOSE to the Central Plains from around next weekend through the 30th…


We are NOT hyping this- but our long range forecast technique indicates this potential as well ( and this system will return late January into early February- MARK YOUR CALENDARS as our cycle is close to 48 days + or – a day.

Again, DO NOT TAKE THIS AS GOSPEL- we are just showing you what some models ( GFS) are giving us.

We are showing you this as we want to educate you on how DIFFICULT it is to put together a forecast especially around a MAJOR Holiday.

Please understand by even letting you know our thoughts this far out we will likely take some heat….if we didn’t believe in our long range forecasting technique- we wouldn’t even be discussing these potential systems….

****We are starting to see some verification from the Climate folks that COLD air will most likely be present for the Christmas Holiday for the Central US****

PLEASE ASK QUESTIONS- Don’t be shy- let’s talk Weather….