Hello Weather Watchers….

The weather is extremely tranquil for most of the country. The Pacific Northwest is about to begin to get pounded by Heavy rain and strong winds. They will see one system after the other and as these storms move over the Rocky Mountains they fall apart not affecting the weather here in the Central Plains.

Let’s take a look a couple of weeks in advance when we are expecting storms systems to return- especially the Strong ones we had come through the early to mid part of November, remember those?

Here is what we see that has been showing up in the models for the last few days. IT WILL LOOK NOTHING LIKE THIS Trackwise but it very well could look as strong as this system does.

  

This is what the surface would look like as a storm like this develops.

  
  
 The systems gets stronger by the 16th…
 Here is how the surface looks as it really gets wrapped up- a nice deep Low bringing down heights enough for Snow on the backside and enough warm moist air for Severe storms in the Warm sector!

Could be an interesting storm and according to our Long Range forecast- we should start an active period around that time..Will we be right?? 

 
 Taking a BIG PICTURE look, we can even see the potential Christmas week storm on the models-

We are looking straight down on the top of the Earth,  looking at the storm track as the storms move around the arctic –

Just wanted to show you what we are looking at in the future.

The teleconnections- AO and PNA- Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific North American  are showing signs of a cool off as well as an increasingly active pattern as they both look to go towards a neutral or even negative pattern. 

 AO:

 
PNA:

  
These are good predictors that we keep an eye on when we are anticipating a pattern change.

Lastly- the Climate Prediction Center put out their 8-14 day outlook and it shows below normal temps on the West Coast as well as above normal precip for much of the country.

 
Stay tuned, it will be very interesting to watch our Long Term Forecast verify.

If you have questions, please ask.