Winter started today – that is, The Meteorological Winter started today and ends Feb 28.

As we have been discussing for over 2 months the Pattern is has transitioned and we are fairly certain we figured out the cycle length.

Remember Weather Watchers we believe a UNIQUE pattern sets up EVERY Fall and that pattern then cycles throughout the next 10 months before transitioning to a new pattern.

The best way to identify the pattern is using the 500mb maps which is halfway up the Troposphere.

Just because it rains or snows on a certain date doesn’t necessarily mean that will happen again in the next cycle due to seasonal differences and what is called Intraseasonal Oscillations.

However there are signature storms that we can identify within the pattern that will return in future cycles- this is what allows us to forecast several weeks to months in advance.

We have just began the second cycle of the pattern for the 2017-2018 Winter-Spring-Summer.

Let’s take a look to figure out how we got here.

I am going to focus on 3 Kansas cities but you can do this for ANY City across North America as it’s all connected!

First let’s start off by how we figured out the cycle time ( again, we are thinking the pattern is a 47-52 day cycle )

These 2 images show a 47 day cycle-

You are likely saying but wait a minute-

Dec 13 is almost 2 weeks away…. YES- that’s correct- but if you compare the 500mb maps you can see the similarities PLUS look at the DAILY TEMPERATURE LOGS – this is why we issued our Arctic Air Watch we knew based on the upper Air pattern and previous temperatures that we were likely to see below temperatures in the Central Plains:

Check the daily temperature logs for Wichita, Kansas City and Chanute. They all show BELOW normal temps beginning Oct 28th for about 14-17 day followed by a few ups and downs followed by a period of ABOVE normal temps.

NOTICE THE DAILY MOISTURE TOTALS SINCE OCTOBER 28th- THE FURTHER SOUTH & EAST YOU ARE IN THE STATE THE MORE MOISTURE YOU HAVE HAD- granted not much but still more than areas to the West.

.52″ total in Wichita Oct 28-Nov 30

.28″ total in KC Oct 28-Nov 30

.77″ total in Chanute Oct 28-Nov 30

So again- based on our data and the New pattern we are in with a Cycle of 47-52

If we would take you back to the transition period of September through October we experienced some SW flow where we saw Storms develop and mature as they moved East out of SW KS/SE CO then move East along the KS/OK border.

These systems were good moisture producers in early to mid Oct (as you can see in the Daily Temp/Moist logs above) these system have continued to develop but have been moisture starved since they have been cutoff from Gulf moisture by an area of High Pressure that has developed likely because of the weak La Niña ( clockwise flow ) that is sitting over Northern Mexico.

As I write this blog I’m sure this seems incredibly complicated and we will gladly help you understand it, because it does works… hence our accuracy over the years.

WINTER FORECAST:

Based on the data we have spent hours and hours pouring over we are forecasting a Cooler than average WINTER and a WARMER than average Winter here in the Central Plains as far South as Central OK -The further East you are the more colder air you will likely experience.

You are probably thinking WHAT DID YOU JUST SAY??? We said you will likely experience Colder than average AND Warmer than average temps – again go back and look at the column AVG and DEP.

AVG is the Average Temp for that day. DEP stands for Departure from Average Temp. If you look at them they are way below normal or way above normal….We think that will continue throughout the Winter.

MOISTURE: As we move deeper into Winter we have some seasonal variability potential which we will need to watch out for. As of right NOW the further West you live in Kansas the tougher it is to see moisture for a while.

The further South and East of the I-135 corridor the better chances for moisture you have as some of these bigger systems strengthen – We still agree that we will see BELOW Average Precipitation.

So our forecast in a nutshell- Below and Above average temps with Below Average moisture over the next 90 days.

Have a great weekend Weather Watchers!!

Questions- please ask….