Hey everyone…. We really haven’t had to predict any Winter Storms or remind you how difficult they are to pin down….

Both of this evenings models (NAM & GFS ) have shifted the baroclinic zone East as the Low tracks further South and takes its Northeast turn further East than models have been. This allows more moisture to be drawn NW-

Let’s show you what MODELS are now starting to do with this system—THIS IS NOT GOSPEL BUT IT WE NOW MUST WATCH THIS ADJUSTMENT MODELS ARE MAKING…

Let’s looks at temperatures and precipitation…

The LOW begins to move East/Southeast out from Southwest KS around 30 hours from now. The move Southeast into the panhandles is NEW!

  • Here are the SURFACE temperatures to match the above precip type map- notice the leading edge of the cold front is from about Concordia to Meade but the freezing line is just entering NW KS!

Let’s look at 3AM Thursday morning- Notice the LOW is still in Western OK – actually centered in SW OK! BIG CHANGE!! Notice the Low is elongating SW to NE but still mostly in OK- very important…. it’s drawing moisture NNW…

Here are 3AM forecasted temps- freezing line is moving SE but the actual cold front had moved East only 30-40 miles…

Let’s look at 6AM – The Low is still in OK with the freezing line now located from Hiawatha to Medicine Lodge – Right along that front ( which the freezing temps have now caught up to into of lagging ) Lift is created which provides a decent trigger for heavier moisture to fall – which in this case would be snow.

See the deeper blue colors- that a 2-3 hour heavy snow producer along that front – why??

The Low becomes elongated and a New Low begins to form in East Central Iowa right along the Cold front-

This moves the Precip off to the NE along the front by 10am and sets up a freezing rain/sleet event for Northeast KS for a few hours.

These are the 10AM temps- Temps will continue to fall throughout the day as colder air continues to move SE….

If these solutions would verify – this is the snow total potential…

Look how it’s moved the Snow East and South into South Central KS…

The BIG THING is the MOISTURE TOTALS with this further SE solution. Sure hope it continues to looks like this around tomorrow’s noon run…

AGAIN- WE ARE SHOWING YOU THIS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF THE Cold front and cold air ( it provides our lifting mechanism ) The Strong Low provides the moisture draw ( the stronger it is the more usable moisture it pulls in ) Importance of the track of the low.

Again- let’s see what it looks like tomorrow-

A 30-50 mile difference on any of the things above would mean a totally different solution- and this is why WINTER WEATHER forecasting is so difficult!!

Hope you learned something –

Weather Watchers