Hello Weather Watchers!

This is a CRAZY, CRAZY pattern! We must look at the science when making our forecasts….

If we are going to get COLD ARCTIC Air the AO must go into negative territory. If it stays positive that means warmer air….

Everything that we rely on has shown the AO starting to go negative. Take a look at todays AO forecast. It looks as it is going positive. The NAO is neutral as can be.

We are in a VERY WEAK La Niña – similar to last year when California got pounded with Storm after Storm after Storm. Not this year…

To say we are concerned is an understatement.

It’s just not this one index, it is the persistent Ridge along and off of the West Coast. That Ridge doesn’t want to break down which maintains the pattern we have seen for the last 50+ days. The broken Red line shows the Ridge.

Let’s look at the 500mb vorticity’s. Pieces of energy moving through the atmosphere.

#1 is a “wave” or piece of energy moving through late Saturday night early Sunday morning. It should bring some sprinkles to showers over the Eastern 1/2 if the State.

#2 appears to to be a stronger piece as it is wound out and separated from the main flow. This is something we normally would be excited about but look what happens to it- notice how it goes from a wound up circle to this as it moves through:

The previous #2 closed off circle flattens out ( weakens ) into an open wave that will likely not produce anything for but a few clouds.

If you look in between the two systems, #2 and #3, you see what appears to be that pesky Ridge but much less amplified. Look what happens when #3 moves through:

The trough begin to strengthen.

System #3 is the forecasted system that we have been watching for the Holiday time frame.

This shows what the system looks like next Wed, Dec 20th. Looks healthy as storms go, doesn’t it? It is on track to move South and strengthen bringing moisture North as most Storms do….

Will Storm #3 deliver or will it fall apart? Will it lose its energy as it moves towards the Central US? Will it just go poof?

We are concerned with this system as we aren’t seeing the AO go into negative territory –

The climate models are call for Cold Air to move South and we are seeing models showing above average moisture potential.

WITH ALL OF THAT SAID-

WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE UNTIL WE SEE THE Arctic Oscillation go into NEGATIVE territory that we will see Winter Weather.

WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WE SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE until that RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

Sorry to be such a downer but after studying so much data – that is where we all ended up.

We want to be wrong – at this point we need to see these indices show what they are supposed to show. Until then- we aren’t prepared to move off of having Low Confidence for a potential Storm system around the Holiday time frame.