PATCHY SLICK SPOTS TONIGHT INTO FRI AM…VERY POWERFUL, INCREDIBLY DYNAMIC, QUICK MOVING STORM SATURDAY…
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF US400 THROUGH 10AM FRIDAY
This is a VERY impressive system!
It was responsible for 3″ of SNOW in Las Vegas today. Snow in the desert is RARE! It’s been 13 years since they have had that much Snow!
Let’s look at the upper levels – if we had these dynamics and it was Spring we would be dealing with a Significant Severe Weather Outbreak. – That is still going to occur but Several hundreds miles to our Southeast:
A Tornado Outbreak is possible in the Orange colored area – some Tornados could be STRONG!
The Reds and Deep Blue are extreme areas of LIFT and Vertical Motion.
This system is negatively tilted with represents significant strength.
Remember our systems move West to East in this part of the hemisphere. This system wraps up and closes off. The strongest systems are tilted in the atmosphere from SE to NW as seen above. This system it wound up tight and will have the classic comma signature, like you see in the image above. With the strength of the system the “closed ” portion of the system acts as a vacuum and bring down the heights in the atmosphere from above that make it Colder at the surface. Those closed lows make it colder than the air normally would be with an open wave ” U ” not a totally closed “O” Low. As the storm approaches the surface temperatures will become colder as the storm is literally pulling down cold air from the atmosphere down towards the surface- ( this is the reason it snowed in Las Vegas ) This cold air is a very important feature with its strength.
Here again is the current Regional Threat Map:
As this system strengthens and COLD air is drawn in that cold air will be important creating VERY VERY HEAVY Snow on the NW And WEST Side of the Low- the areas called the Cold sector. Warm moisture laden air is drawn into the system from the Gulf. In the warm Sector – East and Southeast side we will like see Thunderstorms with temps in the mid 50s…While literally 40 miles West it’s in the low 30s – Winds gusting to 50 and it’s SNOWING so much you cannot see 10 ft in front of your vehicle.
THATS EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AM. It will RAPIDLY INTENSIFY!
In fact it will intensify so much beginning Saturday morning that by the time it reaches the Northern Great Lakes Sunday AM…It will have gone through “Bombogenesis” -a term meaning that a Storm decreases more than 24 millibars in a 24 hour period.
Cyclogenesis is when an extratropical storm starts to develop and then intensifies.
As we told you in our previous post we think and always have thought that this storm track could take a slightly more Southern track.
It’s is something we might have to pay attention to even as the storm develops….
You will know you are on the Cold side of the system when the temp drops VERY QUICKLY you transition from Rain to SNOW/HEAVY SNOW within just MINUTES! It will literally be that quick of a transition.
The pressure gradient will be so tight, winds of up to 60mph are possible creating BLIZZARD CONDITIONS!
Traveling while this storm is moving through will be very difficult if not impossible. BLIZZARD conditions are likely!
The area of the State to see the longest duration of the Storm will be when the Low begins to move from SW to NE….We should be able to nail that down soon.
If this system could move just West to East it would move quickly with most ppl in the path between 6-10″
Here is our current thoughts:
Again- this could change a bit as we could see a more southern Track.
Question- please ask!
Please let us know if you experience any slick spots this morning!!
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