Good Sunday evening Weather Watchers!

We have refined this years cycle length to 51-53 days with a mean of 52 days.

This is adjustment is common – it takes much research and usually occurs in the second cycle of the new pattern..we feel very comfortable with 52 days after reviewing 5 months of data.

If you have calendared the previous signature storms at 57 days adjust them by 5 days to a mean of 52.

Here is today’s 500mb chart:

Compare it to 52 days earlier:

This is just amazing…look at how similar they are!!!

Look at where the areas of Low Pressure are located as well as the Highs and the Split Flow Regime.

The one on top represents TODAY and the bottom one is from 52 days ago!

All the features are present with seasonal differences.

The placement of all the features are further South than they were almost 2 months ago. The jet stream is much stronger that it was just 52 days ago as well as the tilt of the Earth. Quite amazing isn’t it?

We have told some of you privately that a storm system would likely be affecting somewhere close by on Christmas Eve to Christmas Day.

This is what the the 500mb charts looked like on Nov 3rd which is 52 days from Dec 25th- it doesn’t look that impressive but we have a much stronger dynamics in place- how will these features react?

This is the surface map from Nov 3

If our forecast technique is correct a weak storm system ( maybe somewhat stronger due to better dynamics ) will be moving across the Central Plains Christmas Eve or Christmas Day.

We are going WAY out on a limb with this BUT we are just following the cycling weather pattern that has helped us provide accurate forecasts that everyone wants and needs.

You won’t see this storm even showing up on the models yet- so don’t waste your time looking…lol

How will this weak system affect the Central Plains this go around?? Rain? Snow? Only clouds and cooler temps??

That is what we will watching for.

Last time through we got cooler and clouds with some light showersz

This is what we will be watching over the next 10 days….

We hope you continue to understand our long range forecast…and are following along.

If you have questions- please ask!

Enjoy the average to above average temps for a while…things will change around the New Year or just before – this is when we will likely see our next more significant storm SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS.

Weather Watchers