Hello Weather Watchers!!

Remember the AO? This:

The AO needs to head negative to get cold. As you see where the #1 is the AO is heading towards the negative -that dip is a piece of Cold Air that is heading towards us tomorrow through Christmas Eve day. Then the index heads back briefly into positive territory with a Warm up Christmas Day – Highs in the 30s Northern KS, 40s for Southern KS.

That is then followed by #2 where the index appears to head into negative territory just after Christmas when a Storm try’s to form in the Four Corners:

The above shows us the forecasted pieces of energy that moves in and sits as it has nothing to “kick” it further East- that means there is no energy to its West to push it East or away from us- that’s good as the longer it’s around the better chances of moisture….Additionally, a blocking pattern sets up over Greenland to keep the storm sitting where it is… THATS WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING NOW- -this could all change- please remember that!

What we are seeing since this piece of energy wants to sit and hang out over the Four Corners is a High in the Southeast that has clockwise flow and sends warm moist air North. Another feature is an area of Low Pressure just West of Baja with a counterclockwise flow sending moisture Northeast. This moisture interacts with a developing Lee-side Surface Low in SE CO/ NE NM. As it strengthens is begins to slowly draw Cold Air in from the NNW.

10AM Dec 27:

3PM Dec 27:

3PM Dec 28th:

This set up is how we get higher moisture amounts to the Central US when systems are blocked.

The baroclinic zone sets up on top of Kansas – freezing temps to the North/Northwest with Rain and above freezing temps to the South. In between we have a shallow layer of cold air in the lowest levels of the atmosphere and surface. The baroclinic zone is the area in between the two air masses that the eventually matured storm system would follow. We outlined in below.

This show to potential moisture IF and that is a BIG IF this forecast verified.

Remember last years Ice Storm that hammered the Western 1/2 of the State? The set up was very similar- that’s one reason why we wanted to show you this GFS model solution- it’s bringing back memories from last Winter.

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As we are writing this blog, new data is coming out. Here is the latest run showing a similar system developing from the 27th-29th. WILL THIS TREND CONTINUE?

Stay tuned…..let’s see what things look like tomorrow into the weekend as we are 6 days away which we all know how things can change in a dime especially with Winter systems.

We will be paying attention closely to this POTENTIAL MOISTURE PRODUCER……SO PLEASE STAY TUNED….

Questions- Please ask!

Weather Watchers….