Hi everyone!!

We have been waiting to show you our long range forecasting images that are much more user friendly.

We are going to begin with a close to 30 day forecast. As we continue to collect data we will watch these forecast maps change. 

First off let’s talk about the chance of rain we have have coming on Thursday afternoon and evening.

The precipitation amounts look to be around .25″-.50″ as this cold front moves through. Most areas will likely see <.25″ – the areas to get the heavier amounts will likely have a Thunderstorm close by. 

The light rain and sprinkles we have seen today are a result of a cut-off low ( a Low cut off from the main flow ) over New Mexico that will spin into SW TX before it moves back West towards Northern Mexico and the Baja before it is eventually picked up by the main flow next week. 

  
  

This cut-off low is similar to the one that Sat over the SE US and flooded the Carolinas- this differences are this storm didn’t have the moisture from Joaquin which the historic flooding- 1000 year flooding in some areas.

Once this Cold front moves through Thursday we will begin to warm up by Saturday.

Our normal temps this time of year are around the 71-75 degree range Statewide.

Here are what we will be providing you to look at to show you weekly Temp/Precip outlooks based on the PROPRIETARY DATA WE USE.

This image is the 8-14 day period Temp Anomaly Oct 13-Oct 21….. 
 This image is Temp Anomaly’s for the 15-21 day period Oct 20-Oct 26 


The color keys on the right side aren’t degrees or precip amounts. It represents deviations from norms. 

We will dig into to that in another post.

These charts represent Moisture Anomaly’s Oct 14-Oct 20

 This chart is for Oct 21-Oct 27

 
The pattern cycle looks as though it will be around 41-43 days this year much shorter than we have seen for some time.

The pattern is changing as we speak.

We cannot provide you a Winter forecast at this time and anyone who thinks they can I would take it with a grain of salt.

 Give us 3-6 weeks and we will have a better idea of where we will be.Questions- please ask! We still see some significant changes coming the first couple week of November.

Don’t see any significant moisture until that time.

Tomorrow we will go over the Anomaly’s as well as Teleconnections and what they mean and how they play into our forecast. 
Again, if you have questions, please ask!

Weather Watchers!