Good late afternoon Weather Watchers! 

If you track temperatures, would love to hear what your overnight low was. Here are some of the automated Station reports – the ones with Blue marks had frost or scattered frost. 

 
The High has moved off to our East and we now have return flow occurring with South winds increasing. 

  

We are expecting a nice soaking rain from very early Wednesday morning through Thursday noon.  This is due to a piece of energy in the middle atmosphere moving through from the Southwest to Northeast.

   
  

 

Rainfall totals look to be perfect for those who planted flowers and gardens last weekend. Our wheat farmers should like this moisture as well. Here are our thoughts on how much you should see. 

  
The Severe Weather threat for this weekend doesn’t look super impressive- but this time of year it doesn’t take many atmospheric changes to have a powerful storm. 

Saturday looks to be the period we are most interested in now- HOWEVER – things could change. We are just wanting you to be aware of the potential threat Fri-Sun. 

Here is what the SPC is advertising. Based on CURRENT model trends I think this threat level could move North and be a less impressive threat as CAPE and SHEAR are not where I think they need to be for a Higher end event.  The Cape ( Energy necessary for a storm- the more CAPE the Stronger) is around 1500j/kg and the SHEAR is unidirectional- meaning the winds are from the SAME direction at different levels of the atmosphere. SHEAR is the changing of wind direction with height- not seeing that just yet. We can also have Speed shear which which is Strong winds from the same direction with height- 

The cause 2 different types of storms. 

Directional shear is perfect for Supercells

Speed shear is good for multi-cellular storms with embedded Supercells- 

I hope this helps you understand just a few of the things we must keep our eyes on when we talk about Severe storms…

FRIDAY POTENTIONAL:  
SATURDAY POTENTIAL:

  Let us watch this for you…. 

Check back tomorrow!

Have a GREAT night…..CLEAN OUT/DUMP YOUR RAIN GAUGES

Enjoy the soaking…….