Good afternoon Weather Watchers!!

Tomorrow will be a day to definitely pay attention to the sky….

Let’s start from the beginning. There are SLIGHT chances Severe thunderstorms this evening between 6-10pm in the WEST of the US281 corridor (West of Russell-Pratt)

Around midnight storms should begin to develop in Western sections of Kansas/Northwest sections of Oklahoma.  This is a simulated radar image for 7am. 

  
If the morning storms CLEAR OUT OF WESTERN/CENTRAL areas of Kansas SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER is possible as day time heating is needed to enhance instability. 

THIS IS THE KEY!! We will be watching what areas break out of the clouds by noon time. 

This is the large scale look at the features we will be watching tomorrow. The most significant storms will likely develop on the dryline – that feature will begin to move East early to mid afternoon. 

As you can see we have ALL INGREDIENTS INPLACE TOMORROW FOR A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT- can we get the atmosphere to reload or destabilize??

  
Here is the Tornado potential tomorrow- ONLY IF WE CAN GET THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN THE AREAS CIRCLED!!

  

***EVEN IF THE ATMOSPHERE DOESNT REACH ITS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF MORNING STORMS, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS- HAIL-HEAVY RAINFALL-STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE***

The Tornado threat goes down exponentially!!

Here is the threat tomorrow as it stands now. 

  
Storms should begin to develop around 2-3pm along the dryline however things play out….

We will be watching the Satellite image tomorrow morning and relying on you to let us know when the Sun comes out in your area. PLEASE KEEP US POSTED!! 

The higher the temps the greater the instability. 

Questions, let us know!!

Additional rainfall likely midweek next week and also into Memorial weekend. Temps cooling off to below average by midweek.

Based on our long term forecast- a HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA NEXT WEEK AS LOWS GET INTO THE 20s!!