SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL….
Weather Watchers…good morning!
Many questions about today’s potential Severe set-up.
Let’s get to it…
Here is the latest SPC outlook
When you see that you see most of the Eastern half of the State has the POTENTIAL for Severe Storms…
WILL THEY DEVELOP AND WHERE?? That is a very important question!
There is an approaching Cold front and it will be our trigger for storms.
STORMS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY over the Northern and EASTERN portions of Kansas especially East of I-135 and along and South of I-70.
Short term models do not have the best handle on tonight event.
We think Central Kansas stays dry as the front.
Let look at CURRENT models-HRRR- Hi Res- Short term
It keeps storm development East of I-135 until the CAP weakens after sunset and allows for some back-building to the SW.
The NAM NEST model Suite show a much more INTENSE SET-UP occurring East of I-135
As you see on this last image – the NAM model also try’s to back-build on the West edge … something we will watch –
But we do think – Central and the NW portion of South Central KS will see Storms tonight UNLESS the CAP can be overcome.
WE WILL KEEP YOU POSTED….
Those areas East of I-135 could see LARGE HAIL, STRONG GUSTY WINDS and very heavy rainfall….
We apologize for our late public forecast- we had server issues
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM- AREAS SOUTH OF I-70…,