SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE….
Good evening Weather Watchers.
Let’s look at BASIC WEATHER FORECASTING!!
Look at Satellite image from earlier-
Basic Meteorology tells us that with pieces of energy or disturbances in the atmosphere that Moisture breaks out along or ahead of these waves! We have 2 waves that have produced Storms earlier- the First one was just East of KC around noon which developed a line of storms just East of KC. The second disturbance or wave is coming in from the Central Rockies and is responsible for the storms that moved out of CO into Central KS. See the satellite image above…
What caused the larger area of heavy thunderstorms was a boundary over the Southeastern 1/3 of the State of Kansas.
Hope that helps explain all the different development today!!!
With the Storms today we have seen rainfall amounts of 1″-6″ in a LARGE area across the Eastern 1/2 of the Sunflower State.
A couple Thunderstorm cells have been very active from Eastern Colorado to Central Kansas putting down over 200 miles of heavy rain in its wake( Disturbance #2 )
We are 2 days into the 10 days forecast we and we have seen widespread 2″- 4″ amounts….so who is smoking what….as one person commented.
When you have weak upper flow, CAPE values in the 3000-5000j/kg and Dewpoints approaching 70 degrees you are going to see HEAVY RAINFALL and some SEVERE Storms.
This pattern will continue on/off over the next 10-14 days with no real Significant Spring type piece of energy showing up until we head later in the week. Even then, the potential for organized Severe Weather is Low. The potential for afternoon/evening storms is increasing and we should see a few more disturbances that will move through.
The Summer/Tropical Jet Stream has been hanging out along the Canadian border – like something we would see in July, more of a Summer pattern.
The upper level winds usually don’t retreat this early – based on our long range forecasting technique we think the long models have it wrong and that we could still see SOME Precipitation potential into June and possibly July??!!
Let’s see how things progress-
Hope this explanation provided helped you with what happened Monday.
Questions- please ask…