Here is the current threat area.

The area expecting the most widespread Severe potential is Southwest/Central OK.

  
Here are the current conditions- notice the higher dewpoints/surface moisture  in the areas expecting Severe Storms:

  
That moisture translates to CAPE for the Storms. Remember what CAPE stands for?

  
Here is what is needed to produce Supercell storms like we are expect today 

 All of these ingredients are coming together to produce storms early evening continuing AFTER DARK.

The trigger for our storms will be a cold front and area of Low pressure that is sinking slowly South. The low will move East and wrap moisture around it in a counterclockwise motion giving chances for non-Severe storms in South Central KS AFTER MIDNIGHT tonight.

The area of more SIGNIFICANT CONCERN should be from Lawton Northeast to the OKC metro. This is where the threat will be around early evening into the early morning hours. TORNADOS occurring after dark are very dangerous- make sure you have your Weather radios ready to go this evening. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE and SW OK as storms begin to develop in the Panhandle. These storms will move East then Northeast and intensify over the next 2-3 hours.

  
Southeast Kansas will have the potential for Severe storms on a more ISOLATED basis. THAT DOES NOT MEAN LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. It means the storms will likely not be a widespread.

We will keep you posted….

Next weekend is looking interesting with the potential for significant rainfall.

Both the GFS and the European models are bringing in a slow moving system from the Southwest. 

## WE ARE 5 DAYS OUT-THINGS COULD CHANGE BUT HERE ARE THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT ARE CURRENTLY BEING ESTIMATED BY BOTH MODELS ##

Very encouraging to say the least….

GFS

  
EUROPEAN:

  
We will watch the skies and bring you updates as needed.

Have a good night Weather Watchers- and as always…. 

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