Hello Weather Watchers!

Been fielding several questions about the Severe Weather set-up this week.

Many of the models show these ominous looking forecast charts-

Like this one- for 7pm Wednesday.

The only thing this tells us is the CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE for Supercell Thunderstorms.

It doesn’t show the other criteria we must look at.

We have seen wording such as “Tornado Outbreak” possible…,really???

Yes, this is our first multi-day Potential to have Severe Weather in parts of the State. The dynamics are there for some storms to form but WE ARE NOT SEEING ANYTHING THAT SAYS “Outbreak”..,,

There are many outlets that are in HYPE mode…

We will not do that-

We want to educate you on Severe Storms and give you our thoughts on what to expect and where to expect it.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk today for Severe Storms:

Tuesday’s risk area is further East around 75 Miles-this is a slow system:

The main area of concern Tues will be North Central and Northeast Kansas along the Warm front. We could see some ISOLATED storms develop off of the dry-line ( brown ) / they just won’t survive if they move to Far East off of that boundary as there will be. CAP in place.

Wednesday looks a like more interesting with the POTENTIAL for for a few more storms developing off of the dry-line and in the warm sector( area South of the Warm front and East of the dry-line )

Here is the probability index:

The area that has black hatched marks will be the area that has the greatest threat for Severe Storms..

AGAIN- NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE A STORM… Those who do need to pay close attention as ingredients will be present for ALL MODES of Severe Weather….

WEDNESDAY – The Tornado threat looks to be the greatest in Central Kansas between 6-10pm – East of the Triple Point… we will have more details tonight and again tomorrow morning.

Specific questions — please ask….

WW