Hello Weather Watchers! 

Frost/Freeze advisories tonight:

  
We are entering an active period weather wise over the next 7-14 days. One that weather enthusiasts will want to pay attention to. 

The first event we want to take a look at is a Severe Weather event Tuesday night and especially into Wednesday.

Here is the set-up at the 500mb level for – this is the Noon forecast.

This is a very strong trough with winds of around 120kts. This set-up will produce “Speed Shear”  – winds from the similar direction that increase with height. The results are similar with the potential for Tornados and Supercell Thunderstorms. AS IT LOOKS NOW, AREAS EAST OF I-135 Concordia South to Wichita, have the greatest  potential for Severe storms. This could change if the system speeds up or slows down.
  Here is how the we think this system will rapidly develop…
IF YOU HAVE AN AUTOIMMUNE ISSUE OR FIBROMYALGIA- BE PREPARED as this storm will RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WEST TO EAST DIRECTLY OVER KANSAS.

 Noon Wednesday- Thunderstorms are breaking out along a dry line in Eastern sections of the State. The area between the dry line and trailing cold front is called the dry slot as dry SW winds from the desert Southwest fill in. The area that gets “dry slotted” will likely see no moisture.

 
This image shows the position of the storm system as it moves NNE out of the area-the cold front will sweep through brining in Cold gusty winds from the NW.  

Remember us talking about the AO index and the other indexes we call teleconnections?

Here is the current AO index and the forecast of the index in Red as we approach the middle to latter portion of the November.

  
As we see the AO begin to trend negative the models are beginning to show us some VERY STRONG storm systems. 

Here is one that develops out West and moves East and RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS to a STRONG pressure of 976mb!! WOWSER!!

   

KEEP IN MIND WEATHER WATCHERS–this is all fantasy right now– but with the AO heading into negative territory we will need to be prepared for changing weather.

Any questions, please let us know.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS WEEKS SYSTEM CLOSELY- THERE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER-EXACTLY WHERE WILL BECOME CLEARER BY MONDAY..

Stay tuned…..