The forecasted rainfall that was supposed to keep many of us wet most all weekend has been a bust. 

We have lots moisture in place-

Check out the dewpoints ( green numbers ) , when you see them at 65-75 that indicates oppressive humidity, tropical in nature. 

We are missing the triggers for widespread Thunderstorm development. The pieces of energy and front that was forecast Friday/Saturday kept to the South and the steering winds in the upper levels have been incredibly weak – weaker than forecast. Notice we have not had surface winds, that affects the nocturnal low level jet as well. 

We have had very weak convergence – a few updrafts go up and them collapse on themselves–HOWEVER- that may be changing….

A piece of energy has moved into SW KS as seen on this mornings radar mosaic:

As this piece of energy spins it will provide LIFT which is needed for storm development. 

Moisture continues to advect or move North providing us even deeper moisture. Any storm that forms will be extremely efficient rainfall producers- at 5am this morning a small developing storm passed over the Wichita airport and I’m 15 min they received .60 inches!! That is torrential rainfall!!


The focus for storm development early on will be the piece of energy in SW Kansas as well as an approaching cool front. 

The potential for rainfall looks to be the greatest over the Eastern areas of the State.

This shows the forecast for 6pm this evening: 
  This shows the forecast for 1am Monday morning. 

Here are the forecast rain totals: 1-3″ totals. 


We should dry out and warm up Wednesday-Friday with another cold front moving through next weekend with chances of rain- the humidity stays in place all week…

Questions, please ask!