Hello Weather Watchers…

The most recent computer models are coming together on a solution for tomorrow’s events.

Here is our latest thoughts…with the IF this then that scenario as well.

Some on had a question about the energy Thunderstorms need – it’s called CAPE, not to be confused with CAP which is the lid in the atmosphere that prevents storm development.

The higher the CAPE value the stronger the Thunderstorm Updraft. CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. It is measured in joules per kilogram – we would need to get into to physics to discuss that.

CAPE that is over 2500 j/kg is considered EXTREME!

Models are forecasting CAPE at 4000-5000j/kg for Sunday’s events.

The Red on the above forecast map is CAPE over 4000 j/kg – the Gray is 5000 j/kg – this is at 3pm.

The Blue lines indicate the CAP or lid where storms can’t develop because of a temperature inversion- it’s warmer aloft than it is at the surface -which prevents updrafts from breaking through the CAP. Where there are no blue lines Thunderstorms should/will likely rapidly develop via a trigger.

This is the outlook for tomorrow – DO NOT JUST FOCUS ON THE AREA IN RED- THE AREAS IN ORANGE WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERE STORMS AS WELL- They areas in Red could see the Strongest Winds over 80mph… The entire area covered in the Black lines have potential Significant Severe….

We will update you early tomorrow….