Good morning Weather Watchers!

We are around 6 days out from a potential Significant Winter Storm. The models are trending further and further South. Ten days ago this system was forecast across far NW Kansas Northeast into Nebraska. Now the system has trended further South. 

The National Weather Service in Dodge is even talking about this storm behind the scenes in its forecast discussion:

For Sunday into Tuesday, highs cool into the 40s on Sunday with aweak cold front. By Monday morning a strong winter storm system isforecast to move near the Four Corners Region with a chance for somelight snow spreading into parts of southwest Kansas. Then models infairly good agreement with winter storm system and associated upperclosed low moving from northeastern New Mexico on Monday afternoonand across the Panhandles and southwestern Kansas by Tuesdaymorning. Then finally exiting the area to near Kansas City byTuesday evening. This current track favors a significant winterstorm for parts of southwest to north central Kansas with theheaviest amounts across the I-70 corridor, along with some strongwinds from Tuesday into Tuesday night. That said, the storm trackcould still shift north or south and have a major effect on wherethe heaviest snow axis sets up.

Here is the 500mb winds from the most recent GFS:

  
Here is last nights European Model:

  
We will continue to track how these models put out their solutions in the next few days. We should begin to see some trends develop. 

We did a little looking back in December when this storm rolled through- here is where the snow occurred with very limited cold air on December 13.  

Heavy rainfall occurred East of the Snow, in the December storm, with amounts of 1.5- 2″ not uncommon across the Eastern half of the State.

In this cycle we will have cold air already in place as well as a strong storm with plenty of moisture. 

UNTIL NEXT WEEK….ENJOY THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 70 IN CENTRAL KS with low 60s in most other areas…Get outside, grab some sun, play a round of golf or take the kids to the park! 

Stay tuned Weather Watchers….

Questions, please ask.