Merry Christmas Eve Weather Watchers…

The system is finally ashore:

Here is the track that models are forecasting the surface low to take.

In order for KS to get Snow we need to have the Low track across Northern OK…. them turn NE around Tulsa or what we call the I-44 Track.

What we have seen with our Signature storms this season, the surface Lows have tracked along the KS/OK border and then turns NE around Parsons taking a track NE to North of Columbia, MO.

Most of KS remain on the Warm side of the Low so we have to potential to see Thunderstorms. With Thunderstorms come the potential for heavy rainfall.

So the heaviest rainfall totals will likely be scattered around wherever Thunderstorms develop and move.

Here are the model timing for Thunder:

The Cold side of the Storm will affect far NW Kansas where the system will start out as freezing rain. Up to 1/10th of 1″ is possible make for very hazardous driving conditions, ESPECIALLY at night as temps fall, along I-70 from around Grainfield West. This could eventually changeover to all snow from Colby/Goodland Northward Wednesday night then ending back as freezing rain Thurs AM.

Here is our thinking on moisture accumulations…

If the surface LOW sets up differently, things will change.

Just remember during the Winter – the Cold side of the Storm is on the North and West side whereas the warm portion of the Storm are on the South and East.

Merry Christmas Eve

We will provide an update tomorrow for those traveling..

Weather Watchers