Another STRONG system moving through right on schedule –

Let’s look at the 500mb level 48 days prior to April 13 – this is when Arkansas experienced a Tornado outbreak…

and 48 days prior to that on Jan 8:

Here is what the 500mb winds look like this evening:

We didn’t have moisture with the system on January 8 – temperature gradient wasn’t as great and the Low Pressure wasn’t as strong. This system will be the first system to draw real Gulf moisture with 60 degree Dewpoints as far North as Kansas City.

This is how using our pattern/cycles allows us to accurately provide longer range forecasts.

There are seasonal differences as you can tell and we must take that into account even when we see smaller ripples in the flow- we know those ripples can produce freezing drizzle in January or February but in May those small wave could produce showers to Severe Thunderstorms.

Let’s take a look at this system- IF YOU ARE SENSITIVE TO WEATHER SYSTEMS YOU WILL LIKELY FEEL THIS ONE AS IT STRENGTHENS AND TRACKS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER…IT WILL BE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM.

The map above shows the regional hazards…The main threats for Kansas are FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND FRIDAY and a HIGH WIND WARNING FRI-SAT for Northwest winds gusting to 65mph.

Far Northwest Kansas is under a Winter Storm Watch for the potential of up to 4″ of Snow and Blizzard Conditions- WINDS GUSTING TO 80mph!!

Let’s look at the models:

Winds will continue begin to increase out of the South/Southwest throughout the day and CONTINUE overnight before a STRONG COLD FRONT moves through Friday morning in Northwest Kansas and mid afternoon Central areas reaching the I-135 corridor around 6pm as it looks now.

After the front moves through expect NORTHWEST winds gusting to 80 mph in NW KANSAS and 65+ in Central KS.

Saturday will be a raw day with Highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. As the system fully matures and takes on the comma shape – the wrap around moisture on the back side of the storm could possibly produce some rain/snow mix on Saturday in Central possibly as far South as South Central Kansas.

If you have questions- please ask

Weather Watchers