Same song, unfortunately same verse….and we know why, don’t we?

As the 3rd cycle begins to start we go back around 45-49 days and look what at the 500mb maps looked like ( that’s wind flow around 18,000′ above the surface ). As we showed you in yesterday’s blog the Storm forecast to develop around the 10/11th had been around 47 days earlier, so it is right on schedule based on this years pattern and cycles.

Let’s look at what models are doing with both of the upcoming storm systems.

First a weak area of low pressure forms Saturday night and moves just South along the KS/OK border. Moisture is drawn North and overruns the warm front which provides enough lift for a brief period of showers Sunday. The system is a quick hitting system as it moves ENE…

Here is the precipitation potential based on the GFS:

Here is the Euro:

Both models show light precipitation amounts…

The Euro model shows most of the State getting dry-slotted where the area of Low Pressure moves from SW to NE KS on Thursday.

Let’s look closer….

Noon Wed:

6pm Wed:

Midnight Wed:

6AM Thursday:

If the Surface Low would track just a 100 Miles South – similar to Sunday’s system we would likely see a band of snow set up from SW through NE KS. That scenario will most likely not occur as the area of Low Pressure follows the baroclinic zone which looks to be further North.

Kansas will be thrust into the FREEZER one more time ( Thursday and Friday ) before a big warm up is likely.

Fairly strong system develops along the Lee-side of the Rockies in Eastern CO -Noon Wednesday:

Midnight Wednesday night the Low is over the Flint Hills and reaches its peak strength

3AM Thurs begins to track Northeast into NW MO pulling down Arctic air on its backside

7AM Thursday the Storms is into SE Iowa – again pulling down very cold air on its back side:

9am Friday the 12th- Cold Air is still in place on the backside as an area of High Pressure sets up right over the Sunflower State. It moves off to the East quickly with return flow setting up, temps return into the 40s for Western and Central sections by Sunday.

Look for ABOVE average temps for most of the rest of the month as our jet stream retreats North and the pattern become more Zonal.

This will allow for warmer temps and continued dry conditions.

Questions, please ask!