Good morning Weather Watchers!!

Most of you are waking up to STRONG WINDS, COLD TEMPS and are wondering where the Snow and Ice is and why we discouraged you from going to the Chiefs game. Let’s go over what to expect and the time frames.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those in the Dallas Metro who lost loved ones or property in last nights Tornado. 

Ok- let’s first look at the radar:

The Snow is located just over the border in OK where they are reporting Thundersnow. There is some light freezing drizzle in areas of South Central KS and Lt Snow in SW Kansas. 

  
Most of the State will experience a lull in the activity until later today..

PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF OKLAHOMA.

  
The area of Low pressure is located in Texas this morning- here is where it will be by 6 this evening- just East of Dallas- it will begin to strengthen, and remember when Lows strengthen they slow down. 

 
This is the position of the Low at 6am Monday -right over Tulsa.

   

Now let’s look at how the precipitation will develop as the Storm strengthens and goes through cyclogenisus- this is quite amazing to watch develop.

As you can see the system looks disorganized- with precip moving into Southern KS.  
The LOW begins to strengthen- this is why we suggested not traveling to the Chiefs games as it would be VERY difficult to get home… 
The system continues to strengthen – drawing up COPIOUS amounts of moisture with its Counterclockwise flow.

Heavy snow begins to developing the North side 
  HEAVY SNOW with rates of 1-2″ per hours possible.

  

Really taking on the comma shape showing it at full strength-We listed the part of the storm where the heaviest bands develop based on warm moist air it is drawing into the Storm around the 13-18000 ft range- it is called the Trowal axis. 
  The actual comma head portion of the storm is called the deformation zone- it can drop several inches of snow as it moves over an area. 

I hope this helps you understand how this storm will develop and finally- here are our thoughts on accumulation-UP TO 12″ is possible- 

  

 This forecast is made up of the EURO and NAM models. The GFS takes the storm East with hardly any moisture in Kansas- it appears to be the outlier.
Questions, please ask 

Stay safe and PLEASE:

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