Hi Weather Watchers!

With the strong South winds the last few days, those winds have pulled up almost Spring time moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

This is a satellite image from this afternoon – the White areas over portions of Kansas are the low moisture laiden clouds that kept many others cooler than forecast from Dodge City to Great Bend to just South of Salina to Emporia NE to Kansas City.

 

Could you feel the humidity? Here are CURRENT conditions the Green numbers are dewpoints, red numbers are temperatures.

  
As you can see with the above image, there is a Surface Low in NW KS/SW NE that is strengthening- what happens when the Low strengthens? Wind happens, so here is one of the reasons for the increased winds and moisture.

This is called Warm Air Advection – you can see the 60+ degree dewpoints in Western TX and OK.

This will likely be the fuel for a few Thunderstorms later tonight along the dryline or Cold front. 

Tomorrow the cold front will move QUICKLY across the State. 

We MIGHT see slight chances of Thunderstorms SE of KS Turnpike tomorrow afternoon – most likely the front will already out of the area- it will be a long shot.

Here are our Long Range forecasts based on our own Algorithm. 

Temps:

  
Precip:

(In the image below we are watching an area of above average precip Nov 19-25 in the Desert SW moving out into the Plains)   

This long range forecast would indicate Above normal temp with near normal to above normal precip- something we will watch.

One last thing… Lets look at the AO- Arctic Oscillation teleconnection- WOW, look how high it is forecast to be mid November–AMAZING!!! 

You see it dipping to Neutral in the next day or so ( which is the Cold front moving through ) before temps begin to increase again next week as the index shoots up to a +5….Amazing!!

 

Remember that this index tells us the COLD Arctic air will likely stay bottled up in Canada as long as that index stays positive- this is El Niño at work….

 
 Have a great night- let us know if you see moisture, especially you folks in the Western 1/3 of the State.

Questions, please ask!!