Hello Weather Watchers!

We have been watching this storm on the models for around 10 days. The big problem with this type of system is watching the surface temperatures. Precipitation type is actually determined by what is happening 3500′ above us at the 850mb level. With this storm- Temps will be WARMER above the surface as the shallow COLD air oozes Southeast. This means that precipitation will likely start as rain above us, but as it falls as a liquid, it will freeze as a solid as it hits tree branches, powerlines, elevated roadways where temperatures are at 32 degree and below.

Here is our set-up…

Heavy rainfall will occur Thursday morning into afternoon. 

Icy areas will begin to develop late Thursday afternoon in Western/Northwestern KS and slowly move Southeast…

Let’s discuss in depth why icing, even a small amount, can cause Travel troubles. 

Icing of the road is very dangerous to travel. Even a small amount of ice on the road can lead to accidents. The temperature and the amount of precipitation determine how much ice will be on the roads. You have probably heard that ice freezes on the bridges and overpasses first. Why is this? Ice will freeze first on surfaces that drop to freezing or below. Bridges and overpasses are cooled on TWO sides while road surfaces connected to the ground are only cooled on ONE side. When temperatures drop below freezing, there is a lag time in the soil dropping to freezing. A road connected to the ground will stay above freezing even after the air temperature drops to freezing (especially if temperatures had been above freezing the previous few days). Either temperatures have to fall well below freezing or the air temperature needs to be below freezing for a significant amount of time before a road surface connected to the ground will freeze. A bridge or overpass has air on BOTH sides of it. There is no relatively warm surface to keep the bridge or overpass above freezing when the air temperature drops below freezing. The bridge or overpass losses heat very quickly to the air as the air cools. The lag time between the temperature of the bridge or overpass and the surrounding air is very short. Once the air temperature drops below freezing, the bridge drops below freezing. If precipitation is occurring or there is standing water on the bridge or overpass, it will freeze quickly once the air temperature drops below freezing. A road connected to the surface may stay above freezing even after temperatures drop into the 20’s. This is especially true for roads in the southern U.S. Temperatures may be in the 50’s or higher for several days before colder weather moves in. It may take several hours for the soil temperatures to cool below freezing once the air temperature drops below freezing because of all the heat the earth’s surface has stored during the warm period. 
When forecasting it is important to have an idea of how much frozen precipitation will accumulate on the roads. If the surface is below freezing, frozen precipitation will accumulate on all roads. If the temperature is below freezing and the surface is above freezing, it is bridges and overpasses that will ice over while surface roads will remain wet. Once the surface reaches freezing, ice will accumulate on all road surfaces. If precipitation is falling as sleet or snow, road surfaces will begin to cool since the melting process absorbs latent heat. If the wintry precipitation is heavy enough, it CAN accumulate on road surfaces that are above freezing. Once the precipitation stops, the snow or sleet quickly turns to slush and melts. Freezing rain or drizzle will only freeze on surfaces at or below freezing. Any amounts of ice, whether just on the bridges or overpasses or on all roads is dangerous. Some motorists make the mistake of thinking the bridges and overpasses will be safe to drive on because the rest of the surface roads are not frozen. 

If you have specific questions, please let us know.

Getting home from Thanksgiving dinner could be tricky- especially for areas West of I-135 or NW of a line from Manhattan to Pratt.