Hi Weather Watchers!

FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY 

Recording setting HIGH temperatures likely!!  

We are in the 3rd cycle of our 50 day repeating pattern. The first 2 cycles we had a split flow with a strong Southern jet. We had some Strong SW storms that provided 2 Blizzards in Western Kansas an Ice Storm in Central Kansas and heavy rainfall in Central and Eastern Kansas. 

As we begin the 3rd cycle we have a Ridge that has developed over the SW US. This Ridge splits Kansas in two. Far Eastern areas have been very cold with highs in the 20s while SW Kansas is running 30 degrees above normal with temps in the mid 70s! A 50 degree temperature gradient from West to East….amazing!!

Here is how the 500mb looks – you can see the jet stream and how it separates the warm from the cold.

 
In the next 10-14 days this pattern will flatten out into a zonal flow then return our area into a Northwest flow by the first week of March. We are anticipating the pattern to become active in March and April. 

 

  
For those wondering about El Niño, it continues and actually strengthened one tenth of one degree in January. It is still around 2.6 degrees above normal which is very significant.  

Back to this week- Thursday will almost be HOT in Southwest/South Central  Kansas with temperatures topping out in the 80-85 degree range. Records will definitely be broken in many communities. 

Here are a few slides from the NWS in Wichita and Dodge City.

  
  

With VERY WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40mph dropping humidities into the single digits  – FIRE DANGER WILL BE AT ITS MAXIMUM IN MANY AREAS!