Let’s talk Severe Weather for the Friday through Saturday night periods.
Hi Weather Watchers!
Let’s talk about the POTENTIAL Severe Weather Friday and especially Saturday.
The set-up is very similar to what we had last weekend EXCEPT that we are anticipating better moisture, dewpoints (60-65); the main piece of energy is not supposed to slow down and great shear!
The MILLION dollar question for Saturday is will we see daytime heating after morning storms that form late Friday night and hang around into Saturday morning. We need that sunshine to destabilize the atmosphere or reload it to provide energy for the storms. If skies can clear and we get temps close to 80 by around 3-4 pm ahead of the dryline- Significant Severe Weather is possible.
***Even if clouds do not allow the full destabilization – the approaching system is very strong and we will still likely see Severe Storms including Hail, Winds of 70mph and very heavy rainfall with the strongest storms.
If threat areas can become destabilized, surface based storms including Supercells and Multi-Cells storms would likely be the main storms mode-these are storms that typically produce tornadoes.
If we don’t destabilize we will likely see lines of storms packing the wind and hail threat.
Here is the threat area for Friday where very isolated storms are anticipated in the Sunflower State.
We will likely get into the details of the set-up tomorrow morning.
If we can destabilize Saturday, Tornadoes would be LIKELY- so Saturday will definitely be a WEATHER AWARE day.
Lastly, this is a model we look that when Significant Severe weather is possible. It gives us the Tornadic potential based on ingredients present-as you can tell it is very high for Saturday ( this is based on a destabilized atmosphere)
If you have questions, please ask!!