Good Thursday Weather Watchers!
Are you prepared for more rain and flooding? Severe Thunderstorms?
At this points exact details and timing are somewhat “up in the air”-pun intended….
Let’s look at what is happening at the 500mb Level – around 18,000′ above the surface. Remember, that level tells the story when it comes to our Long Range forecast technique and shows the our storm systems and the strength of the mid level jet stream. The Jet coming out of the the Southwest is very strong for this time of year!
The system moving in shore NOW is going to DUMP 40+ INCHES OF SNOW on the SIERRAS! Unheard of in mid May!!
4-8″ is one thing but 4 feet of Snow??!! That is incredible!!
Closer to home let’s take a look-
The Jet starts to dip far South over the desert Southwest because of a cold upper level High over the Canadian Plains.
A Negatively tilted Upper Trough over Central Colorado with 60 kts rounding the base into SW KS parallel to the dry-line along the Surface Low. Isolated storms should develop in Western KS and move ENE off the line during peak heating.
Isolated Thunderstorms should form along the dry-line and move ENE
Another Surface Low develops at the surface Saturday AM and strengthens- where will it set up is going to be key. We are anticipating along or EAST of US281 maybe as Far East as I-135.
We get break Sunday as a trough moves over us Kansas ahead of a STRONG SYSTEM that will produce HEAVY FLOODING RAINS and the potential of SEVERE STORMS Monday afternoon and evening. Heavy rains continue over Central and Eastern sections on Tuesday.
Here are some of the models rainfall outputs… REMEMBER… we are getting the signal for Heavy Rainfall which will likely be widespread- DONT FOCUS ON JUST YOUR AREA AS WHERE THE MAIN AXIS SETS UP WILL BE KEY.
We are anticipating 2″-6″ totals over the Eastern 2/3rds and possibly more.
The potential of Severe Weather and Heavy rains looks as though it will continue into the holiday weekend.
This is the European Model through Sunday the 26th…
As you can see, most of the mainline models are showing Heavy rains over the next 7-10 days…
We will keep you posted as to our thoughts…and the Severe Potential.
We think MONDAY could have the best potential for Severe Weather while Heavy Rains are likely beginning Saturday – Severe storms could be possible-we will watch it closely…
We will post early tomorrow…
Have a good evening,